Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
